It begins
AFC Championship: Indianapolis Colts (+3) at New England Patriots
The past: Thanks to DirecTV, I have watched the Patriots just enough to wonder how they managed to win 14 games with no running game and a wide receiver trio of David Givens, Deion Branch and Troy Brown.
Obviously, their Bill Belichick devised defensive schemes, which allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season, and only 36 in their last seven home games, including last weeks 17-14 win over Tennessee, right?
Well, then, how do you explain these results -- all wins: 38-30 against Tennessee during the regular season, 30-26 at Denver, and most pertinent to this weekend, 38-34 at Indianapolis?
The truth is, this team can do whatever it takes to win games, and their Nov. 30 upset of the Colts typifies their resourcefulness.
They can win ugly when the defense is playing well, and on the rare occasion they do not, can take their "wouldn't start them on my fantasy team" skill position players into a dome stadium and win a shoot-out with the best offense in football.
In that win over the Colts, the Patriots, on the strength of two Mike Cloud TD runs (Mike Cloud? Are you serious?) and two backbreaking kickoff returns by rookie wide receiver Bethel Johnson, held off a furious Manning-led rally when Willie McGinest stuffed Edgerrin James on fourth and one on the final play of the game.
It was this game that finally, after weeks of denial and talk of "smoke and mirrors" on my radio show, made me realize just how special this Patriots team is.
The present: The Colts storm into Gillette Stadium riding a two-week stretch of offensive precision, the likes of which I haven't seen since my girlfriend's five-year old nephew discovered I couldn't cover Terrell Owens on the out-and-up in NFL Live 2004.
Zero punts. Seventy-nine points in two games.
The second win came against a Kansas City team that had won 13 straight at home, single-handedly destroying the notion that a "finesse" dome team can't win on the road come January.
To put it simply, Peyton Manning and the Colts offense has been so prolific, they have spurred cries of "Brandon Stokely's still in the league?" from football fans everywhere.
Despite the loss in November, there were many positives the Colts could take away from that game.
They moved the ball at will in the second half, and Manning, who it has been said can't solve a Belichick defense, threw for 288 yards and four TDs.
Add in the fact that Indy views those two long kickoff returns as one-game anomalies and the confidence that comes from their recent play, and you get a team that believes they can come to Gillette Stadium and win on Sunday.
The Patriots, thanks to the "Peyton Manning is in a Zone" headlines dominating newspapers everywhere, still find themselves safely removed from the spotlight, despite a 13 game win streak that ranks second in NFL history only to the 1972 Miami Dolphins.
They win at home, they win on the road, they win 12-0, and they win 38-34. It has been as impressive a run through a very difficult NFL schedule as I can remember, going 7-0 against teams above .500 and 5-0 against playoff teams.
By Sunday, Belichick will have cooked up some new looks to slow down Manning- Stokely (and if he has time, Manning-Harrison), and will sleep secure in the knowledge that the USC Trojans could hang 27 points on the Colts defense.
The Patriots will be ready, the crowd will be raucous, and the temperature will be, as they say in that part of the country, "wicked cold."
The future: So what does it all mean for this Sunday?
From a point spread perspective, absolutely nothing. The Patriots are the most clear cut example of what the gambling industry refers to as a "must play."
Here is a team that has not one, but TWO, 13 game win streaks (one home, one overall), went 13-2-1 against the spread this year, hasn't lost to a team with a winning record, and has given up an AVERAGE of five points per game at home over the last seven.
They have a quarterback in Tom Brady who is undefeated in the playoffs, overtime, and even college bowl games, and simply does not turn the ball over at home.
They have been at home for three straight weeks, with a week off after the regular season to get healthy.
They have done nothing, either defensively or offensively to suggest that they are struggling.
Despite all of this, they are only a field goal favorite, and Vegas gives a team three points just for playing at home.
You simply have to play the Patriots here, whether they're playing the Colts or 1985 Bears.
The numbers are too heavily in your favor, and the intangibles are, at worst, a push.
New England 27, Indianapolis 21
NFC Championships: Carolina Panthers (+4) at Philadelphia Eagles
The past: Even in today's NFL, where every August experts try to find the surprise team to follow in the footsteps of the '99 Rams, '00 Ravens and '01 Patriots, nobody thought the Carolina Panthers could get out of the NFC South, let alone be one of the last four teams standing.
Just two years removed from a 1-15 season, John Fox has led his squad to an 11-5 record during the regular season, sandwiching a 5-0 start and 3-0 finish around a 3-5 stumble that included a 25-16 loss to the Eagles on November 30.
They run the ball and stop the run, a formula that has allowed them to keep games close; in fact, they are an astounding 7-0 in games decided by three points or less.
Against the Eagles in that first meeting, the Panthers ran into a Philadelphia team that was, at the time, playing the best football in the league.
Riding an eight game winning streak after an 0-2 start that featured the demise of Rush Limbaugh, the Eagles escaped from Carolina thanks to the well chronicled incompetence of John Kasay, who missed three field goals and an extra point.
The present: The week after the Philadelphia game, Carolina lost to Atlanta in the Michael Vick 2003 coming-out party.
They have not lost since, running off five straight, including a "perfect game" (no penalties or turnovers) in a 29-10 win over the Cowboys in the opening round of the playoffs and last week's double overtime 29-23 thriller in St. Louis when Mike Martz cemented his status as the worst in-game coach in the NFL.
Like the Patriots, it is easy to believe this Carolina team wins game with defense and simply asks its offense to stay out of the way.
That fallacy, however, is revealed with a look at the last three games in which the Panthers have hung up 37, 29, and 29 points, with Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith blossoming before our very eyes. The Eagles team that will take the field this Sunday is a shell of the team that ran off nine straight wins during the regular season.
Brian Westbrook, the burgeoning star running back who ripped the Panthers for 96 all-purpose yards in the first meeting, is on the shelf for the remainder of the postseason.
Linebacker Carlos Emmons, the Eagles best defender all year, is also out for this match-up, meaning the task of stopping the Carolina rushing attack could prove even more difficult than it was in November.
The future: Unlike the Colts-New England game, there is not a "must bet" side in this game.
A close look at the line movement, however, can sometimes be extremely revealing.
In this case, the Eagles opened as 5.5 point favorites.
Despite the fact that Philadelphia is the larger market, with a much larger fan base, the line has moved 1.5 points since Monday in Carolinas favor, meaning that neutral bettors everywhere are playing the underdog, and with good reason.
Philadelphia has struggled at home all season, finishing 5-3, and in their last two games at the Linc has given up an amazing 416 yards rushing.
Carolina is rolling, offensively and defensively, and will keep the game close with their ability to run on the porous Eagles front seven.
Philadelphia will have to resort to the air to move the ball, and this is where they are least comfortable.
I can't believe I'm writing this, but by the time Sunday night rolls around, Carolina will have completed an incredible two-year transformation from 1-15 to Super Bowl team.
Carolina 23 Philadelphia 20
10 Things I've Learned Since Sunday
10. One of the funniest things going in the world of sports right now is watching Darius Miles, he of the 9.2 points and 24.7 minutes per game, continuing to do the "pulling out the antennas" bit, even when he dunks on Fred Hoiberg with the Cavs down 19.
9. Having watched every team in the NCAA Top 25 play at least once this year, I can honestly say I have not seen a better performance than the one Stanford put on last Saturday at Arizona. They simply do not give up an easy bucket, and their offense is surprisingly athletic for a school with a 1300 SAT requirement. I can't imagine them not making it to the Elite 8 come March.
8. Speaking of Arizona, if you haven't seen Hassan Adams play yet, make it a point to do so. He is 6'3" in his bare feet, yet playing power forward for the 8th ranked Wildcats. He is, and I didn't think I would ever say this, a better pure athlete then former Wildcat Richard Jefferson.
7. You know that scene in The Color of Money where Steve Mizerak, having just been run off the table by Fast Eddie Felson in the opening round of the Vegas nine-ball tournament, turns to Felson and says, "I didn't deserve that?" To which Felson, after a brief pause, responds, "Yes, you did!" I have a feeling someone will be having that exact conversation with Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez in about six months, when the Detroit Tigers, whom Pudge is reportedly close to signing with, is officially eliminated from the pennant race.
6. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Arrested Development is the best non-Simpsons show on television -- hands down. The writing is genius and the characters are hilariously well evolved. Unfortunately, it has been receiving rave reviews from critics, which means it should be going the way of The Family Guy and week now.
5. Kevin Brown and Javier Vasquez will out-win Roger Clemens and Andy Petite in 2004.
4. In reference to #8, above, I would gladly plunk down $49.95 to watch Hassan Adams and Georgia Tech swing man Isma'il Muhammad in a Slam-Dunk contest on Pay-Per-View.
3. Kobe Bryant getting injured should surprise no one. Whether you want to blame it on the off-season surgery or the arrest-induced stress, Bryant came into the season built like an X-Ray. It was only a matter of time.
2. Why would anyone hire the Steelers offensive coordinator to coach their team? What were they, the '98 Vikings? They looked like a high school team offensively this year, with Tommy Maddox and Plaxico Burress regressing in a big way.
1. I have only seen 45 seconds of this Jayson Williams interview regarding his impending manslaughter trial, and I am already annoyed. After watching he and his wife sob and tell the world what a "great guy" Jayson is, I was left with this thought -- since when are being a "great guy" and committing a crime mutually exclusive options? Can't he be a great guy who just so happens to enjoy guns and alcohol to an unhealthy degree, as testimony from friends and teammates seems to indicate?
The past: Thanks to DirecTV, I have watched the Patriots just enough to wonder how they managed to win 14 games with no running game and a wide receiver trio of David Givens, Deion Branch and Troy Brown.
Obviously, their Bill Belichick devised defensive schemes, which allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season, and only 36 in their last seven home games, including last weeks 17-14 win over Tennessee, right?
Well, then, how do you explain these results -- all wins: 38-30 against Tennessee during the regular season, 30-26 at Denver, and most pertinent to this weekend, 38-34 at Indianapolis?
The truth is, this team can do whatever it takes to win games, and their Nov. 30 upset of the Colts typifies their resourcefulness.
They can win ugly when the defense is playing well, and on the rare occasion they do not, can take their "wouldn't start them on my fantasy team" skill position players into a dome stadium and win a shoot-out with the best offense in football.
In that win over the Colts, the Patriots, on the strength of two Mike Cloud TD runs (Mike Cloud? Are you serious?) and two backbreaking kickoff returns by rookie wide receiver Bethel Johnson, held off a furious Manning-led rally when Willie McGinest stuffed Edgerrin James on fourth and one on the final play of the game.
It was this game that finally, after weeks of denial and talk of "smoke and mirrors" on my radio show, made me realize just how special this Patriots team is.
The present: The Colts storm into Gillette Stadium riding a two-week stretch of offensive precision, the likes of which I haven't seen since my girlfriend's five-year old nephew discovered I couldn't cover Terrell Owens on the out-and-up in NFL Live 2004.
Zero punts. Seventy-nine points in two games.
The second win came against a Kansas City team that had won 13 straight at home, single-handedly destroying the notion that a "finesse" dome team can't win on the road come January.
To put it simply, Peyton Manning and the Colts offense has been so prolific, they have spurred cries of "Brandon Stokely's still in the league?" from football fans everywhere.
Despite the loss in November, there were many positives the Colts could take away from that game.
They moved the ball at will in the second half, and Manning, who it has been said can't solve a Belichick defense, threw for 288 yards and four TDs.
Add in the fact that Indy views those two long kickoff returns as one-game anomalies and the confidence that comes from their recent play, and you get a team that believes they can come to Gillette Stadium and win on Sunday.
The Patriots, thanks to the "Peyton Manning is in a Zone" headlines dominating newspapers everywhere, still find themselves safely removed from the spotlight, despite a 13 game win streak that ranks second in NFL history only to the 1972 Miami Dolphins.
They win at home, they win on the road, they win 12-0, and they win 38-34. It has been as impressive a run through a very difficult NFL schedule as I can remember, going 7-0 against teams above .500 and 5-0 against playoff teams.
By Sunday, Belichick will have cooked up some new looks to slow down Manning- Stokely (and if he has time, Manning-Harrison), and will sleep secure in the knowledge that the USC Trojans could hang 27 points on the Colts defense.
The Patriots will be ready, the crowd will be raucous, and the temperature will be, as they say in that part of the country, "wicked cold."
The future: So what does it all mean for this Sunday?
From a point spread perspective, absolutely nothing. The Patriots are the most clear cut example of what the gambling industry refers to as a "must play."
Here is a team that has not one, but TWO, 13 game win streaks (one home, one overall), went 13-2-1 against the spread this year, hasn't lost to a team with a winning record, and has given up an AVERAGE of five points per game at home over the last seven.
They have a quarterback in Tom Brady who is undefeated in the playoffs, overtime, and even college bowl games, and simply does not turn the ball over at home.
They have been at home for three straight weeks, with a week off after the regular season to get healthy.
They have done nothing, either defensively or offensively to suggest that they are struggling.
Despite all of this, they are only a field goal favorite, and Vegas gives a team three points just for playing at home.
You simply have to play the Patriots here, whether they're playing the Colts or 1985 Bears.
The numbers are too heavily in your favor, and the intangibles are, at worst, a push.
New England 27, Indianapolis 21
NFC Championships: Carolina Panthers (+4) at Philadelphia Eagles
The past: Even in today's NFL, where every August experts try to find the surprise team to follow in the footsteps of the '99 Rams, '00 Ravens and '01 Patriots, nobody thought the Carolina Panthers could get out of the NFC South, let alone be one of the last four teams standing.
Just two years removed from a 1-15 season, John Fox has led his squad to an 11-5 record during the regular season, sandwiching a 5-0 start and 3-0 finish around a 3-5 stumble that included a 25-16 loss to the Eagles on November 30.
They run the ball and stop the run, a formula that has allowed them to keep games close; in fact, they are an astounding 7-0 in games decided by three points or less.
Against the Eagles in that first meeting, the Panthers ran into a Philadelphia team that was, at the time, playing the best football in the league.
Riding an eight game winning streak after an 0-2 start that featured the demise of Rush Limbaugh, the Eagles escaped from Carolina thanks to the well chronicled incompetence of John Kasay, who missed three field goals and an extra point.
The present: The week after the Philadelphia game, Carolina lost to Atlanta in the Michael Vick 2003 coming-out party.
They have not lost since, running off five straight, including a "perfect game" (no penalties or turnovers) in a 29-10 win over the Cowboys in the opening round of the playoffs and last week's double overtime 29-23 thriller in St. Louis when Mike Martz cemented his status as the worst in-game coach in the NFL.
Like the Patriots, it is easy to believe this Carolina team wins game with defense and simply asks its offense to stay out of the way.
That fallacy, however, is revealed with a look at the last three games in which the Panthers have hung up 37, 29, and 29 points, with Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith blossoming before our very eyes. The Eagles team that will take the field this Sunday is a shell of the team that ran off nine straight wins during the regular season.
Brian Westbrook, the burgeoning star running back who ripped the Panthers for 96 all-purpose yards in the first meeting, is on the shelf for the remainder of the postseason.
Linebacker Carlos Emmons, the Eagles best defender all year, is also out for this match-up, meaning the task of stopping the Carolina rushing attack could prove even more difficult than it was in November.
The future: Unlike the Colts-New England game, there is not a "must bet" side in this game.
A close look at the line movement, however, can sometimes be extremely revealing.
In this case, the Eagles opened as 5.5 point favorites.
Despite the fact that Philadelphia is the larger market, with a much larger fan base, the line has moved 1.5 points since Monday in Carolinas favor, meaning that neutral bettors everywhere are playing the underdog, and with good reason.
Philadelphia has struggled at home all season, finishing 5-3, and in their last two games at the Linc has given up an amazing 416 yards rushing.
Carolina is rolling, offensively and defensively, and will keep the game close with their ability to run on the porous Eagles front seven.
Philadelphia will have to resort to the air to move the ball, and this is where they are least comfortable.
I can't believe I'm writing this, but by the time Sunday night rolls around, Carolina will have completed an incredible two-year transformation from 1-15 to Super Bowl team.
Carolina 23 Philadelphia 20
10 Things I've Learned Since Sunday
10. One of the funniest things going in the world of sports right now is watching Darius Miles, he of the 9.2 points and 24.7 minutes per game, continuing to do the "pulling out the antennas" bit, even when he dunks on Fred Hoiberg with the Cavs down 19.
9. Having watched every team in the NCAA Top 25 play at least once this year, I can honestly say I have not seen a better performance than the one Stanford put on last Saturday at Arizona. They simply do not give up an easy bucket, and their offense is surprisingly athletic for a school with a 1300 SAT requirement. I can't imagine them not making it to the Elite 8 come March.
8. Speaking of Arizona, if you haven't seen Hassan Adams play yet, make it a point to do so. He is 6'3" in his bare feet, yet playing power forward for the 8th ranked Wildcats. He is, and I didn't think I would ever say this, a better pure athlete then former Wildcat Richard Jefferson.
7. You know that scene in The Color of Money where Steve Mizerak, having just been run off the table by Fast Eddie Felson in the opening round of the Vegas nine-ball tournament, turns to Felson and says, "I didn't deserve that?" To which Felson, after a brief pause, responds, "Yes, you did!" I have a feeling someone will be having that exact conversation with Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez in about six months, when the Detroit Tigers, whom Pudge is reportedly close to signing with, is officially eliminated from the pennant race.
6. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Arrested Development is the best non-Simpsons show on television -- hands down. The writing is genius and the characters are hilariously well evolved. Unfortunately, it has been receiving rave reviews from critics, which means it should be going the way of The Family Guy and week now.
5. Kevin Brown and Javier Vasquez will out-win Roger Clemens and Andy Petite in 2004.
4. In reference to #8, above, I would gladly plunk down $49.95 to watch Hassan Adams and Georgia Tech swing man Isma'il Muhammad in a Slam-Dunk contest on Pay-Per-View.
3. Kobe Bryant getting injured should surprise no one. Whether you want to blame it on the off-season surgery or the arrest-induced stress, Bryant came into the season built like an X-Ray. It was only a matter of time.
2. Why would anyone hire the Steelers offensive coordinator to coach their team? What were they, the '98 Vikings? They looked like a high school team offensively this year, with Tommy Maddox and Plaxico Burress regressing in a big way.
1. I have only seen 45 seconds of this Jayson Williams interview regarding his impending manslaughter trial, and I am already annoyed. After watching he and his wife sob and tell the world what a "great guy" Jayson is, I was left with this thought -- since when are being a "great guy" and committing a crime mutually exclusive options? Can't he be a great guy who just so happens to enjoy guns and alcohol to an unhealthy degree, as testimony from friends and teammates seems to indicate?
posted by Tony at 1:28 PM
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